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“The prospect for more tax cuts in coming years is remote given the Federal Government’s budgetary issues. So affordability, from a deposit view point, is likely to worsen, not improve as housing prices rise.” Along with headwinds for local buyers, Workman says higher stamp duty charges on foreign investors introduced by several state governments has also contributed to waning overseas interest, further limiting demand and helping to offset positives for price growth from strong levels of population growth. And with demand starting to soften, Workman says there’s also an abundance of new housing supply about to hit the markets, adding to downward pressure on prices. “On the supply side, there is record new construction under way,” he says. “It will deliver significant new stock to property markets, mainly in the largest cities, Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney, which have recorded the highest price gains. “Record new apartment supply in the three largest cities, and their suburbs, should restrain growth in prices and rents through 2018 and 2019.” The CBA is forecasting construction of new dwellings to stay “relatively high” at 203,000 this year before slowing to around 190,000 in 2019. With much of this new supply set to be apartments, Workman expects prices for these types of dwellings to underperform those pop over to these guys for houses in the period ahead from a broader national perspective. “We see the divergence between the price growth for detached houses and apartments as continuing through 2018 and 2019, mainly because of large new supply,” he says. “The main oversupply concerns are in the multi-unit segments in the inner-city suburbs of Brisbane and Melbourne. Based on current approvals data there could be increases of between 7% and 12% to the current dwelling stock in some suburbs.” The final piece of the house price forecast jigsaw puzzle, says Workman, is the outlook for mortgage rates. “Previous house price falls in Australia have been relatively short-lived and the coming one should be similar,” he says.
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